Everything you need to know about buying in today's East Texas market — and why waiting could cost you more than you think.

There's a question I hear more than any other right now, from buyers sitting on the sidelines across East Texas: "Should I wait for rates to come down?" It's a fair question. But the answer, almost always, is no — and by the time you're done reading this, you'll understand exactly why.

If you're a homeowner who has been watching the market soften and wondering whether you "missed it," I want to offer you some honest reassurance — because the regret a lot of sellers feel right now is based on a comparison that isn't fair to themselves. And I will address that here as well.

If you're a buyer, you're living in one of the most favorable markets East Texas has seen in years. If you're a seller, you haven't missed your moment — not by a long shot. This piece is for both of you. Let's talk honestly about where we are, where rates have been, and what your smartest move looks like today.

Nobody likes paying more interest. When you see a rate sitting in the 6% range and you remember the once-in-a-generation 2.65% rates of 2021, it stings. That's completely understandable. But here's what's critical to understand: those 2021 rates were the anomaly, not the standard. They were an emergency response to a global pandemic — a one-time, unrepeatable event.

The question is not whether rates will eventually drop — they will, at least somewhat. The question is: "What happens to you while you wait?"

"Marry the house. Date the rate." - The most important piece of advice in real estate right now.

A home is a long-term relationship. The rate is a number on a piece of paper that you can change. When rates drop — and local mortgage analysts project they will continue to ease gradually — you refinance. The house you bought and fell in love with stays. The payment you locked in at 6.4% becomes the payment you reset at 5.5%, or 5%, or lower. But the house you waited on? It may no longer be available. And it may cost more, because every other buyer who was also waiting decided it was finally time.

Before you decide today's rates are too high for you to act, consider where they have actually sat throughout the last several decades. The picture is eye-opening.

The long-term average for the 30-year fixed mortgage, going all the way back to 1971, is approximately 7.70%. Today's rate of 6.4% sits below the historical norm. The buyers of the 1990s who bought at 8% were thrilled — they refinanced when rates dropped, and they built equity for decades on homes they owned. That is the model to follow.

The "sweet spot" most economists and lenders consider historically normal is the 5.5%–7% range. For nearly 40 of the last 55 years, rates have lived inside or above that band. The 3–4% era wasn't normal. It was extraordinary — and the market distortions it created (bidding wars, homes selling $50,000 over asking, zero negotiating power for buyers) are proof of that.

While we find ourselves within that "sweet spot"--that is less than the national, historic average of 7.7%--it seems like the time to buy. But let's be balanced here. There are genuine considerations on both sides, and I'd rather give you the full picture than a sales pitch. You can weigh the pros and cons and make your own decision.

Here's what the headlines often miss: in a buyer's market, the rate is only part of the affordability equation. The other part is what you pay for the home, and what concessions you receive at closing.

Right now in East Texas, motivated sellers are coming to the table with tools they simply didn't offer during the peak market years. These tools can effectively offset a higher interest rate in ways buyers rarely calculate.

What Buyers Can Negotiate Right Now

• Rate buydown credits: A seller can contribute toward buying your interest rate down for the first 1–3 years, or permanently. A 1-point buydown can drop your rate by roughly 0.25%. That's real monthly savings.
• Closing cost assistance: Sellers paying $5,000–$10,000 of your closing costs is common in this market — money that stays in your pocket or goes toward immediate home needs.
• Price reductions: Median seller price cuts in Texas reached nearly $19,000 in early 2026. A home listed at $280,000 that sells for $261,000 is a 2% effective rate improvement when you run the monthly math.
• Inspection concessions: In 2021, buyers waived inspections to be competitive. Today, you can ask for repairs, credits, or both — fully protecting your investment.
• Move-in timelines: You negotiate the timeline that fits your life, not the seller's convenience.

This is the market moment buyers have been waiting for. The irony is that the higher rates — which seem like a penalty — have actually created the negotiating environment that makes buying at today's prices genuinely advantageous.

A Quick Break-Even Example

Say you buy today at 6.4% on a $250,000 loan. You start accruing equity immediately. Your principal and interest payment is roughly $1,563/month. If you refinance in two years at 5.5%, your payment drops to approximately $1,419/month — a savings of $144/month or $1,728/year. If refinancing costs $4,500, your break-even is about 31 months. Stay three years, and you're ahead. Stay ten years, and you've saved over $14,000 in interest — in addition to the equity you've been building from day one.

If you're a homeowner who has been watching the market soften and wondering whether you "missed it," I want to offer you some honest reassurance — because the regret a lot of sellers feel right now is based on a comparison that isn't fair to themselves.

Yes, if you sold in early 2022, you sold at the absolute peak. But here is what that peak was: a once-in-a-generation distortion created by historically unprecedented interest rates combined with a global pandemic that drove mass relocation. That peak wasn't a baseline — it was a spike.

"Sellers worry less about the price itself and more about the feeling that they 'missed the peak.' Even when their equity position is strong, they fear leaving money on the table compared to neighbors who sold at the top." -- Austin Moore, Real Estate Agent, Longview, Texas — Home Light Survey 2026

Here's what hasn't changed: your equity. If you bought your East Texas home before 2020, it is almost certainly worth significantly more today than what you paid for it — even with the current market correction. Property values in Tyler and Longview more than doubled between 2016 and 2023. A "correction" from those levels still leaves most sellers in an enviable position.

What Sellers Still Have Going for Them

• Substantial equity: East Texas homeowners who've owned for 5+ years have typically seen 40–80% appreciation from their purchase price, even after recent softening.
• A balanced market, not a crashed one: This is not 2008. Foreclosure rates are minimal, demand is real, and prices are settling — not collapsing. East Texas, by its nature, avoids the dramatic swings of the major metros.
• Motivated buyers are out there: People are still moving to East Texas — relocating from DFW and Houston for affordability, from out of state for Texas's advantages. Your buyer pool exists.
• Life doesn't wait for market peaks: Upsizing, downsizing, job changes, family changes, and retirement don't pause for interest rates. If your life says it's time to move, a skilled agent can help you net strong proceeds even in this market.
• Pricing right the first time wins: The sellers doing well right now are the ones pricing accurately from day one, presenting their homes beautifully, and leaning on their agent's local expertise. Overpriced listings are sitting. Well-priced listings are moving.

The emotional comparison to 2022's peak prices is understandable — but it's also worth remembering that sellers who sold at the peak also had to buy at the peak (or leave the area entirely). The buyers of 2021–2022 are the ones who are now underwater, or locked in, or watching their purchase price catch up to what they paid. Timing the market is almost always less important than time in the market.

If you need to sell — or want to sell — this market rewards well-prepared, well-priced homes with motivated sellers and experienced representation. That's the formula that still works.

Real estate has never been about finding the perfect moment. It has always been about making the smartest decision available to you right now, with your specific circumstances, your specific home goals, and your specific life.

Buyers: you have more negotiating leverage, more inventory, softer prices, and a clear path to a better rate through refinancing. The market is asking you to step forward.

Sellers: your equity is real, your position is far stronger than the comparison to the peak suggests, and the right buyer for your home exists — they just need a well-priced, well-presented home to step forward for.

In both cases, the most important ingredient isn't a perfect rate or a perfect market. It's a knowledgeable local agent who knows East Texas deeply — the neighborhoods, the pricing, the comps, the buyers, and the sellers.

That's a conversation I'd love to have with you.